by
Davis, Paul K., 1943-
Call Number
327.1 23
Publication Date
2011
Summary
Governments intervening in post-conflict states find themselves beset with numerous challenges and profound dilemmas: it is often unclear how best to proceed because measures that may improve conditions in one respect may undermine them in another. This volume reviews and integrates the scholarly social-science literature relevant to stabilization and reconstruction (S & R), with the goal of informing strategic planning at the whole-of-government level. The authors assert that S & R success depends on success in each of four component domains -- political, social, security, and economic. The authors discuss each domain separately but emphasize their interactions and the idea that the failure of any component can doom S & R as a whole. The authors also focus on a number of dilemmas that intervenors in post-conflict states face -- such as between short- and long-term goals and whether to work through or around the state's central government -- and suggest how these dilemmas can be confronted depending on context.
Format:
Electronic Resources
Relevance:
30570.4180
by
Davis, Paul K., 1943-
Call Number
355.6840973 22
Publication Date
2008
Summary
An analytical framework and methodology for capability-area reviews is described, along with new tools to support capabilities analysis and strategic-level defense planning in the Defense Department and the Services. BCOT generates and screens preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) is used to evaluate options that pass screening. The concepts are illustrated with applications to Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense. Recommendations are made for further defense-planning research.
Format:
Electronic Resources
Relevance:
30566.3906
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by
Davis, Paul K., 1943-
Call Number
358.4070973 22
Publication Date
2005
Summary
Decision science concerns understanding human decisionmaking and methods and tools to assist it. The first concern includes the distinction between descriptive and prescriptive: how humans actually decide, versus how they should decide. Much of the early literature prescribed rational-analytic methods, such as embodied in systems analysis and policy analysis. The descriptive literature, however, has long noted that humans use heuristics (cognitive shortcuts), which are usually quite valuable, but which sometimes introduce unintended biases. Efforts have been made to improve decision support by "debiasing" the presentation of information. A newer literature on "naturalistic" decisionmaking, however, emphasizes the strengths of intuitive decisionmaking based on heuristics and questions the desirability of debiasing. Our study contrasts the schools of thought and suggests steps toward a synthesis. Ultimately, decision support should appeal to both the rational-analytic and the intuitive capabilities of the decisionmaker, with a balance of "cold" and story-based presentation of analysis and recommendations. The particular balance should depend on characteristics of the decision, the decision environment, and the decisionmaker. Our study also discusses new tools emerging for decision support, which include increasingly realistic models and simulations, such as virtual worlds, and new methods to help in the creative and imaginative aspects of strategic planning. Most important, we note modern methods, such as exploratory analysis, to encourage decisions and strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust so as to deal well with uncertainty.
Format:
Electronic Resources
Relevance:
30566.3223
by
Davis, Paul K., 1943-
Call Number
363.32 21
Publication Date
2002
Summary
Historical experience has shown that successful strategies to combat terrorism that is spawned by serious, deep-rooted problems have involved first crushing the current threat and then bringing about changes to make terrorism?s reemergence less likely. While deterrence of terrorism may at first glance seem to be an unrealistic goal -- concepts such as co-optation and inducement cannot be expected to be effective for dealing with terrorists who have the unshakable commitment of an Osama bin Laden -- it may be possible to influence some members of terrorist groups. Such groups are not simply single entities; rather, they are systems, with diverse elements, many of which could be amenable to influence. Thus, to sustain its counterterrorism efforts for the long term, the United States must develop a multifaceted strategy that includes attempting to influence those elements of terrorist systems that may be deterrable, such as state supporters or wealthy financiers living the good life while supporting terrorists in the shadows. The U.S. strategy should comprise not only military attacks, but also political warfare; placing at risk the things that terrorists hold dear; a credible threat of force against any state or group that supports the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction for terrorist uses; and maintaining cooperation with other nations that are also engaged in the war on terror. At the same time, the strategy must preserve core American values, including discriminate use of force and maintaining due process in the provision of speedy justice.
Format:
Electronic Resources
Relevance:
30562.5254
by
Davis, Paul K., 1943-
Call Number
363.32517 22
Publication Date
2009
Summary
Employs an interdisciplinary, social science approach to various counterterrorism questions, problems, and policies.
Format:
Electronic Resources
Relevance:
30555.6973
by
Wainfan, Lynne.
Call Number
302.2 22
Publication Date
2004
Summary
This report summarizes the research literature on virtual collaboration, focusing on interactive virtual collaborations in real or near-real time. In particular, it reviews how the processes and outcomes of virtual collaborations are affected by the communication medium (videoconferencing, audioconferencing, or computer-mediated conferencing). It then discusses how problems in such collaboration can be mitigated and opportunities realized. Problems include increased "us vs. them" divisions and misunderstandings, as well as shifts toward risky options. Opportunities include broadening the range of views and options, as well as broadening the range of available experts. The report suggests a strategy for choosing the most effective medium, including face-to-face communication and hybrid systems, as a function of task and context (e.g., convergence on a decision or brainstorming).
Format:
Electronic Resources
Relevance:
3040.5313
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