Preface | p. iii |
Figures | p. ix |
Tables | p. xi |
Summary | p. xiii |
Acknowledgments | p. xxxiii |
Acronyms and Abbreviations | p. xxxv |
Chapter 1 Introduction | p. 1 |
The Challenge: Resource-Informed Assessment and Recommendations | p. 1 |
Enhancing the National, Joint Perspective | p. 2 |
Aligning Joint Responsibilities, Authorities, and Resources | p. 2 |
Partnership with the Military Departments | p. 3 |
Need for an Integrated Portfolio Framework | p. 4 |
Outline of the Monograph | p. 6 |
Chapter 2 The Operating-Unit Perspective | p. 9 |
Motivations | p. 9 |
The Logic of the Operating-Unit Framework | p. 9 |
The Framework as a Next Step in Jointness | p. 10 |
Cautions | p. 11 |
Current COCOMs and "National Command" | p. 12 |
Current COCOMs | p. 12 |
A National Command for Analytic Purposes | p. 14 |
Chapter 3 Characterizing Alternative Strategies in Terms of Implications for Operating Units (COCOMs) | p. 17 |
Overview | p. 17 |
Expressing Strategy and Goals | p. 17 |
Planning for Adaptiveness | p. 18 |
The Analytic Flow | p. 19 |
Elements of the Process | p. 20 |
Operating-Unit Objectives | p. 20 |
Capabilities Needed to Meet Operating-Unit Objectives | p. 21 |
Programs and Force Shifts to Develop Needed Capabilities | p. 21 |
Resource Implications | p. 22 |
Chapter 4 Application to Some Illustrative Strategies | p. 25 |
Characterizing the Strategies | p. 25 |
Premises of the Alternative Strategies | p. 25 |
Contrasting Goals, Approaches, and Preparations for Adaptation | p. 27 |
The Possibility of Failure and the Need for Strategic Adaptiveness | p. 27 |
Objectives of COCOMs | p. 27 |
Capabilities Needed by Operating Units | p. 30 |
Actions: Programs and Force Shifts to Address Capability Needs | p. 33 |
An Analytic Baseline | p. 33 |
Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Direct GWOT/COIN Strategy | p. 42 |
Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Build Local, Defend Global Strategy | p. 45 |
Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Respond to Rising China Strategy | p. 54 |
Alternative Expressions of Costs | p. 59 |
Principles | p. 59 |
Total Costs of Strategy | p. 61 |
Sensitivities to Discount Rate and the Convention for Calculating NPV | p. 67 |
The Special Costs of War or Other Intensive Operations | p. 68 |
Costs When Strategies Fail | p. 69 |
Other Cost Breakdowns, by Service, COCOM, and Combinations | p. 72 |
Noneconomic Costs | p. 72 |
Chapter 5 Integrated Portfolio Analysis of Illustrative Strategies | p. 73 |
Basic Concepts | p. 73 |
Capabilities-Based Planning and Portfolio Management | p. 73 |
Methods for Portfolio Analysis | p. 75 |
The Alternative Strategies | p. 78 |
Effectiveness Comparisons | p. 80 |
Nominal Comparison of Risks | p. 85 |
Uncertainty: Consequences of Different Perspectives and Assumption Sets | p. 88 |
A Modern Approach to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | p. 89 |
The Dubious Concept of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Across Categories of Goodness | p. 89 |
A Nominal Analysis | p. 91 |
Reflecting Different Perspectives and Assumptions | p. 92 |
A First Cut at Exploratory Analysis for Alternative Military Strategies | p. 94 |
Using Portfolio Analysis to Improve Strategies | p. 101 |
The Need to Balance the Risks Better | p. 101 |
Hedges to Improve Strategic and Operational Adaptiveness | p. 103 |
Summary Objective: Strategy That Is Flexible, Adaptive, and Robust (a "FAR Strategy") | p. 104 |
Chapter 6 Conclusions | p. 107 |
Methodology, Tools, and Analysis | p. 107 |
Using the Methods and Tools | p. 108 |
Attributes of Good Strategic Analysis | p. 108 |
Challenges | p. 109 |
Next Steps for Research and Applications | p. 111 |
Appendix |
A Responsibilities of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff | p. 113 |
B The Portfolio Analysis Tool | p. 115 |
C A Tool for Customized Reporting | p. 119 |
D Documentation of Cost Estimates | p. 127 |
E Treatment of Risks | p. 145 |
Bibliography | p. 157 |