by
Davis, Paul K., 1943-
Call Number
355.6840973 22
Publication Date
2008
Summary
An analytical framework and methodology for capability-area reviews is described, along with new tools to support capabilities analysis and strategic-level defense planning in the Defense Department and the Services. BCOT generates and screens preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) is used to evaluate options that pass screening. The concepts are illustrated with applications to Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense. Recommendations are made for further defense-planning research.
Format:
Electronic Resources
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0.2552
by
Davis, Paul K., 1943-
Call Number
327.1 23
Publication Date
2011
Summary
Governments intervening in post-conflict states find themselves beset with numerous challenges and profound dilemmas: it is often unclear how best to proceed because measures that may improve conditions in one respect may undermine them in another. This volume reviews and integrates the scholarly social-science literature relevant to stabilization and reconstruction (S & R), with the goal of informing strategic planning at the whole-of-government level. The authors assert that S & R success depends on success in each of four component domains -- political, social, security, and economic. The authors discuss each domain separately but emphasize their interactions and the idea that the failure of any component can doom S & R as a whole. The authors also focus on a number of dilemmas that intervenors in post-conflict states face -- such as between short- and long-term goals and whether to work through or around the state's central government -- and suggest how these dilemmas can be confronted depending on context.
Format:
Electronic Resources
Relevance:
0.1132
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by
Davis, Paul K., 1943-
Call Number
358.4070973 22
Publication Date
2005
Summary
Decision science concerns understanding human decisionmaking and methods and tools to assist it. The first concern includes the distinction between descriptive and prescriptive: how humans actually decide, versus how they should decide. Much of the early literature prescribed rational-analytic methods, such as embodied in systems analysis and policy analysis. The descriptive literature, however, has long noted that humans use heuristics (cognitive shortcuts), which are usually quite valuable, but which sometimes introduce unintended biases. Efforts have been made to improve decision support by "debiasing" the presentation of information. A newer literature on "naturalistic" decisionmaking, however, emphasizes the strengths of intuitive decisionmaking based on heuristics and questions the desirability of debiasing. Our study contrasts the schools of thought and suggests steps toward a synthesis. Ultimately, decision support should appeal to both the rational-analytic and the intuitive capabilities of the decisionmaker, with a balance of "cold" and story-based presentation of analysis and recommendations. The particular balance should depend on characteristics of the decision, the decision environment, and the decisionmaker. Our study also discusses new tools emerging for decision support, which include increasingly realistic models and simulations, such as virtual worlds, and new methods to help in the creative and imaginative aspects of strategic planning. Most important, we note modern methods, such as exploratory analysis, to encourage decisions and strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust so as to deal well with uncertainty.
Format:
Electronic Resources
Relevance:
0.1132
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