Tourism demand modelling and forecasting : modern econometric approaches / Haiyan Song and Stephen F. Witt.

ISBN:

9780585474564

9780080436739

Title:

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting : modern econometric approaches / Haiyan Song and Stephen F. Witt.

Author:

Song, Haiyan.

Personal Author:

Song, Haiyan.

Edition:

1st ed.

Publication Information:

Amsterdam ; New York : Pergamon, 2000.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (viii, 178 pages) : illustrations.

Series:

Advances in tourism research series

Local Note:

eBooks on EBSCOhost

Subject Term:

Tourism -- Econometric models.

Tourism -- Forecasting.

Added Author:

Witt, Stephen F.

Format:

Electronic Resources

Electronic Access:

Click here to view

Publication Date:

2000

Publication Information:

Amsterdam ; New York : Pergamon, 2000.

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Shelf Number	Material Type	Copy	Shelf Location	Status
338.4791 22	1:E-BOOK	1	1:ONLINE	Searching... Unknown

A textbook for a graduate or final-year undergraduate course in tourism studies that might also find interest among researchers and practitioners who want to apply recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting to tourism demand analysis. Song and Witt (both management in the service sector, U. of Surrey, Britain) begin with the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, and the problems of traditional modeling and forecasting. Then they explore the general- to-specific approach, the time-varying parameter model, and the panel- data approach. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Author Notes

Haiyan Song is Reader in Economics/Econometrics in the School of Management Studies at the University of Surrey, UK
Stephen F. Witt is Professor of Tourism Forecasting in the School of Management Studies at the University of Surrey, UK, and in the School of Applied Economics at Victoria University, Australia

Preface	p. vii
1 Introduction to Tourism Demand Analysis	p. 1
1.1 Introduction	p. 1
1.2 Determinants of Tourism Demand	p. 2
1.3 Functional Form and Demand Elasticities	p. 8
1.4 Summary	p. 13
2 Traditional Methodology of Tourism Demand Modelling	p. 15
2.1 Introduction	p. 15
2.2 Traditional Methodology of Tourism Demand Modelling	p. 16
2.3 Failure of the Traditional Approach to Tourism Demand Modelling	p. 26
3 General-to-Specific Modelling	p. 27
3.1 Introduction	p. 27
3.2 General-to-Specific Modelling	p. 28
3.3 Tests of Restrictions on Regression Parameters	p. 33
3.4 Diagnostic Checking	p. 34
3.5 Model Selection	p. 42
3.6 Worked Example	p. 43
4 Cointegration	p. 53
4.1 Spurious Regression	p. 53
4.2 The Concept of Cointegration	p. 55
4.3 Test for Order of Integration	p. 57
4.4 Test for Cointegration	p. 68
5 Error Correction Model	p. 73
5.1 Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism	p. 73
5.2 Estimating the ECM	p. 76
5.3 Worked Examples	p. 79
6 Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Cointegration	p. 91
6.1 Introduction	p. 91
6.2 Basics of VAR Analysis	p. 92
6.3 Impulse Response Analysis	p. 94
6.4 Forecasting with VAR and Error Variance Decomposition	p. 97
6.5 Testing for Granger Causality and Exogeneity	p. 98
6.6 An Example of VAR Modelling	p. 101
6.7 VAR Modelling and Cointegration	p. 111
7 Time Varying Parameter Modelling	p. 123
7.1 Introduction	p. 123
7.2 Are Tourism Demand Elasticities Constant Over Time?	p. 124
7.3 The TVP Model and Kalman Filter	p. 128
7.4 A Worked Example	p. 131
7.5 Summary and Conclusions	p. 134
8 Panel Data Analysis	p. 137
8.1 Introduction	p. 137
8.2 Model Specification and Estimation	p. 138
8.3 An Empirical Study of a Tourism Demand Model Based on the Panel Data Approach	p. 142
8.4 Summary and Conclusions	p. 152
9 Evaluation of Forecasting Performance	p. 157
9.1 Introduction	p. 157
9.2 Measures of Forecasting Accuracy	p. 159
9.3 Forecasting Evaluation of Different Models	p. 161
9.4 Concluding Remarks	p. 164
References	p. 167
Author index	p. 173
Subject index	p. 175

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